Age-Specific Probability of 4 Major Health Outcomes in Children with Spina Bifida

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Objective: This study aimed to estimate the age-specific probability of 4 health outcomes in a large registry of individuals with spina bifida (SB). Methods: The association between age and 4 health outcomes was examined in individuals with myelomeningocele (MMC, n = 5627) and non-myelomeningocele (NMMC, n = 1442) from the National Spina Bifida Patient Registry. Sixteen age categories were created, 1 for each year between the ages of 5 and 19 years and 1 for those aged 20 years or older. Generalized linear models were used to calculate the adjusted probability and 95% prediction intervals of each outcome for each age category, adjusting for sex and race/ethnicity. Results: For the MMC and NMMC groups, the adjusted coefficients for the correlation between age and the probability of each outcome were −0.933 and −0.657 for bladder incontinence, −0.922 and −0.773 for bowel incontinence, 0.942 and 0.382 for skin breakdown, and 0.809 and 0.619 for lack of ambulation, respectively. Conclusion: In individuals with SB, age is inversely associated with the probability of bladder and bowel incontinence and directly associated with the probability of skin breakdown and lack of ambulation. The estimated age-specific probabilities of each outcome can help SB clinicians estimate the expected proportion of patients with the outcome at specific ages and explain the probability of the occurrence of these outcomes to patients and their families.