Artificial Intelligence Modeling to Predict Periprosthetic Infection and Explantation following Implant-Based Reconstruction

Abstract

Background: Despite improvements in prosthesis design and surgical techniques, periprosthetic infection and explantation rates following implant-based reconstruction (IBR) remain relatively high. Artificial intelligence is an extremely powerful predictive tool that involves machine learning (ML) algorithms. We sought to develop, validate, and evaluate the use of ML algorithms to predict complications of IBR. Methods: A comprehensive review of patients who underwent IBR from January of 2018 to December of 2019 was conducted. Nine supervised ML algorithms were developed to predict periprosthetic infection and explantation. Patient data were randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) sets. Results: The authors identified 481 patients (694 reconstructions) with a mean ± SD age of 50.0 ± 11.5 years, mean ± SD body mass index of 26.7 ± 4.8 kg/m2, and median follow-up time of 16.1 months (range, 11.9 to 3.2 months). Periprosthetic infection developed in 113 of the reconstructions (16.3%), and explantation was required with 82 (11.8%) of them. ML demonstrated good discriminatory performance in predicting periprosthetic infection and explantation (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.73 and 0.78, respectively), and identified nine and 12 significant predictors of periprosthetic infection and explantation, respectively. Conclusions: ML algorithms trained using readily available perioperative clinical data accurately predict periprosthetic infection and explantation following IBR. The authors’ findings support incorporating ML models into perioperative assessment of patients undergoing IBR to provide data-driven, patient-specific risk assessment to aid individualized patient counseling, shared decision-making, and presurgical optimization.