Machine Learning Prediction Algorithm for In-Hospital Mortality following Body Contouring

Abstract

Background: Body contouring is a common procedure, but it is worth attention because of concern for a variety of complications, and even the potential for death. As a result, the purpose of this study was to determine the key predictors following body contouring and create models for the risk of mortality using diverse machine learning (ML) models. Methods: The National Inpatient Sample database from 2015 to 2017 was queried to identify patients undergoing body contouring. Candidate predictors, such as demographics, comorbidities, personal history, postoperative complications, and operative features, were included. The outcome was in-hospital mortality. Models were compared by area under the curve, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and decision curve analysis. Results: Overall, 8214 patients undergoing body contouring were identified, among whom 141 (1.72%) died in the hospital. Variable importance plot demonstrated that sepsis was the variable with greatest importance across all ML algorithms, followed by Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, cardiac arrest, and so forth. The naive Bayes model had a higher predictive performance (area under the curve, 0.898; 95% CI, 0.884 to 0.911) among these eight ML models. Similarly, in the decision curve analysis, the naive Bayes model also demonstrated a higher net benefit (ie, the correct classification of in-hospital deaths considering a tradeoff between false-negatives and false-positives) compared with the other seven models across a range of threshold probability values. Conclusion: The ML models, as indicated by this study, can be used to predict in-hospital death for patients at risk who undergo body contouring.