Conditional Survival in Lung Transplantation: An Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Database Analysis

Abstract

Lung transplantation survival estimates are traditionally reported as fixed 1-, 5-, and 10-year mortality rates. Alternatively, this study aims to demonstrate how conditional survival models can provide useful prognostic information tailored to the time a recipient has already survived from the date of transplantation. Recipient data was obtained from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database. Data from 24,820 adult recipients over age 18 who received a lung transplant between 2002 and 2017 were included in the study. Five-year observed conditional survival estimates were calculated by recipient age, sex, race, transplant indication, transplant type (i.e., single or double), and renal function at the time of transplantation. Significant variability exists in conditional survival following lung transplantation. Each specific recipient characteristic significantly impacted conditional survival during at least one time point in the first 5 years. Younger age and double lung transplantation were the two most positive predictors of improved conditional survival consistently throughout the 5-year study period. Conditional survival in lung transplantation recipients changes over time and across recipient characteristics. Hazards of mortality are not fixed and need to be dynamically evaluated as a function of time. Conditional survival calculations can provide more accurate prognostic predictions than unconditional survival estimates.