Predicting Survival of End-Stage Heart Failure Patients Receiving HeartMate-3: Comparing Machine Learning Methods

Abstract

HeartMate 3 is the only durable left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) currently implanted in the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model for 1 year mortality of HeartMate 3 implanted patients, comparing standard statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms. Adult patients registered in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons, Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (STS-INTERMACS) database, who received primary implant with a HeartMate 3 between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019, were included. Epidemiological, clinical, hemodynamic, and echocardiographic characteristics were analyzed. Standard logistic regression and machine learning (elastic net and neural network) were used to predict 1 year survival. A total of 3,853 patients were included. Of these, 493 (12.8%) died within 1 year after implantation. Standard logistic regression identified age, Model End Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-XI score, right arterial (RA) pressure, INTERMACS profile, heart rate, and etiology of heart failure (HF), as important predictor factors for 1 year mortality with an area under the curve (AUC): 0.72 (0.66–0.77). This predictive model was noninferior to the ones developed using the elastic net or neural network. Standard statistical techniques were noninferior to neural networks and elastic net in predicting 1 year survival after HeartMate 3 implantation. The benefit of using machine-learning algorithms in the prediction of outcomes may depend on the type of dataset used for analysis.