Prognostic factors and nomogram for the overall survival of bladder cancer bone metastasis: A SEER-based study

Abstract

Bone metastasis has a poor prognosis in patients with bladder cancer (BC). This study aimed to construct a prognostic nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with bone-metastatic BC (BMBC). The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to recruit patients with BMBC between 2010 and 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to screen for prognostic factors and construct a nomogram. Harrell concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curve were used to verify the prognostic nomograms. All statistical analyses and chart formation were performed using SPSS 23.0 and R software 4.1.2. A total of 1361 patients diagnosed with BMBC were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Six independent prognostic factors, including marital status, histological type, T stage, other metastases, surgery, and chemotherapy, were identified and included in the nomogram construction. Among them, chemotherapy contributed the most to the prognosis in the nomogram. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.745 and 0.753 in the training and validation groups, respectively, and all values of the area under the curve were >0.77. The calibration curves showed perfect consistency between the observed and predicted survival rates. The prognostic nomogram developed in this study is expected to become an accurate and individualized tool for predicting overall survival in patients with BMBC and providing guidance for appropriate treatment or care.