Early evaluation of waist-to-height ratio for the prediction of worsening acute pancreatitis

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between the waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and the aggravation of acute pancreatitis (AP). This prospective study included AP patients treated from May 2019 to December 2019 in the Department of Gastroenterology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed to determine the optimal threshold values for predicting the aggravation of AP. Risk factor analysis was performed via logistic regression analysis. Of 258 patients included in this study, 77 (29.84%) were diagnosed with mild acute pancreatitis, 120 (46.51%) with moderately severe acute pancreatitis, and 61 (23.64%) with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). WHtR, waist circumference, weight, and body mass index were all associated with AP severity, and the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic value was observed for WHtR. The optimal threshold WHtR value for predicting SAP was 0.567. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified WHtR ≥ 0.567 as independent risk factor for SAP. Moreover, the hospital stay was longer and intensive care unit admission rate was higher among AP patients with a WHtR ≥ 0.567. The WHtR was found to be closely related to the severity of AP and an independent risk factor for the aggravation of AP. This simple parameter can aid the early prediction of AP progression, thereby facilitating early intervention and improving patient outcomes.