Development and validation of a predictive model associated with lymph node metastasis of gastric signet ring carcinoma patients

Abstract

The risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (GSRC) have not been well-defined. This study was designed to prognosticate LNM in patients with GSRC by constructing and verifying a nomogram. A total of 2789 patients with GSRC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College (YJS) were retrospectively reviewed. A predictive model was established using logistic regression based on the SEER cohort. The performance of the model was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA). In addition, its robustness was validated using the YJS cohort. Four independent predictors of LNM were identified in the SEER cohort. Next, a nomogram was constructed by incorporating these predictors. The C-index were 0.800 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.781–0.819) and 0.837 (95% CI = 0.784–0.890) in the training and external validation cohorts, respectively. The outcomes of DCA supported good clinical benefits. The proposed model for evaluating the LNM in patients with GSRC can help to avoid the misdiagnosis risk of N-stage, assist to screen the population suitable for neoadjuvant therapy and help clinicians to optimize clinical decisions.