A predictive model for intraabdominal infection after radical gastrectomy in elderly patients

Abstract

Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common malignant tumors worldwide and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths, with a relatively high incidence among the elderly population. Surgical resection is the mainstay treatment for GC and is currently the only cure. However, the incidence of postoperative intraabdominal infections remains high and seriously affects the prognosis. This study aimed to explore the risk factors for intraabdominal infections after radical gastrectomy in elderly patients and to establish and validate a risk prediction model. We collected the clinical data of 322 GC patients, who underwent radical gastrectomy at the General Surgery Department of China Medical University Dandong Central Hospital from January 2016 to January 2023. The patients were divided into an infected group (n = 27) and a noninfected group (n = 295) according to whether intraabdominal infections occurred postoperatively. A nomogram risk prediction model for the occurrence of postoperative intraabdominal infections was developed. All patients were randomized into a training set (n = 225) and a validation set (n = 97) in a 7:3 ratio, and the model was internally validated. Of the 322 patients, 27 (8.3%) experienced postoperative intraabdominal infections. Single-factor analysis revealed associations of intraabdominal infection with body mass index, glucose, hemoglobin, albumin, and other factors. The multifactorial analysis confirmed that body mass index, glucose, hemoglobin, albumin, surgical duration, and bleeding volume were independent risk factors for intraabdominal infections. The nomogram constructed based on these factors demonstrated excellent performance in both the training and validation sets. A nomogram model was developed and validated to predict the risk of intraabdominal infection after radical gastrectomy. The model has a good predictive performance, which could help clinicians prevent the occurrence of intraabdominal infections after radical gastrectomy in elderly patients.