Risk and Time to Diagnosis of Lung Cancer in Incidental Pulmonary Nodules

Abstract

Purpose: To determine the risk of lung cancer in incidental pulmonary nodules, as well as the time until cancer growth is detected. Patients and Methods: This retrospective study examined patients with incidental nodules detected on chest computed tomography (CT) in 2017. Characteristics of the dominant nodule were automatically extracted from CT reports, and cancer diagnoses were manually verified by a thoracic radiologist. Nodules were categorized per Fleischner Society guideline categories: solid <6 mm, solid 6 to 8 mm, solid >8 mm, subsolid <6 mm, ground glass nodules ≥6 mm, and part-solid nodules ≥6 mm. The time to nodule growth was determined by CT reports. Results: A total of 3180 patients (nodules) were included, of which 155 (5%) were diagnosed with lung cancer. By category, 7/1601 (0.4%) solid nodules <6 mm, 11/713 (1.5%) solid nodules 6 to 8 mm, 71/446 (15.9%) solid nodules >8 mm, 1/124 (0.8%) subsolid nodules <6 mm, 29/202 (14.4%) ground glass nodules ≥6 mm, and 36/94 (37.9%) part-solid nodules ≥6 mm were malignant. Of solid lung cancers <6 mm, growth was observed in 1/4 imaged by 1 year and 2/5 by 2 years; of solid lung cancers 6 to 8 mm, growth was observed in 3/10 imaged by 1 year and 6/10 by 2 years. Conclusion: Solid nodules <6 mm have a very low risk of malignancy and may not require routine follow-up. However, when malignant, growth is often not observed until 2 or more years later; therefore, stability at 1 to 2 years does not imply benignity.