Sepsis Prognostic Scores Accuracy in Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Children With Sepsis Admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit From the Emergency Department

Abstract

Objective To compare the performance of several prognostic scores calculated in the first 24 hours of admission (day 1) in predicting mortality and morbidity among critically ill children with sepsis presenting to the pediatric emergency department (PED) and then admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Methods Single-center, retrospective cohort study in children with a diagnosis of sepsis visiting the PED and then admitted to the PICU from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2019. Sepsis organ dysfunction scores—pediatric Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (pSOFA) (Schlapbach, Matics, Shime), quickSOFA, quickSOFA-L, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD)-2, quickPELOD-2, and Pediatric Multiple Organ Dysfunction score—were calculated during the first 24 hours of admission (day 1) and their performance compared with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and severe sepsis—International Consensus Conference on Pediatric Sepsis(ICCPS)-derived criteria—using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Primary outcome was PICU mortality. Secondary outcomes were: a composite of death and new disability (ie, change from baseline Pediatric Overall Performance Category score ≥1); prolonged PICU length of stay (>5 d); prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation (MV) (>3 d). Results Among 60 patients with sepsis, 4 (6.7%) died, 7 (11.7%) developed new disability, 26 (43.3%) experienced prolonged length of stay, and 21 (35%) prolonged invasive MV. The prognostic ability in mortality discrimination was significantly higher for organ dysfunction scores, with PELOD-2 showing the best performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.924; 95% confidence interval, 0.837–1.000), significantly better than SIRS 3 criteria (0.924 vs 0.509, P = 0.009), SIRS 4 criteria (0.924 vs 0.509, P < 0.001), and severe sepsis (0.924 vs 0.527, P < 0.001). Among secondary outcomes, PELOD-2 performed significantly better than SIRS criteria and severe sepsis to predict prolonged duration of invasive MV, whereas better than severe sepsis to predict “poor outcome” (mortality or new disability). Conclusions Day 1 organ dysfunction scores performed better in predicting mortality and morbidity outcomes than ICCPS-derived criteria. The PELOD-2 was the organ dysfunction score with the best performance for all outcomes.