Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

Author:

Knock Edward S.12ORCID,Whittles Lilith K.123ORCID,Lees John A.1ORCID,Perez-Guzman Pablo N.1ORCID,Verity Robert1ORCID,FitzJohn Richard G.1ORCID,Gaythorpe Katy A. M.1ORCID,Imai Natsuko1ORCID,Hinsley Wes1ORCID,Okell Lucy C.1ORCID,Rosello Alicia4ORCID,Kantas Nikolas5,Walters Caroline E.1ORCID,Bhatia Sangeeta1ORCID,Watson Oliver J.1ORCID,Whittaker Charlie1ORCID,Cattarino Lorenzo1ORCID,Boonyasiri Adhiratha6ORCID,Djaafara Bimandra A.1ORCID,Fraser Keith1ORCID,Fu Han1ORCID,Wang Haowei1ORCID,Xi Xiaoyue5,Donnelly Christl A.178ORCID,Jauneikaite Elita1ORCID,Laydon Daniel J.1ORCID,White Peter J.123ORCID,Ghani Azra C.1ORCID,Ferguson Neil M.12ORCID,Cori Anne12,Baguelin Marc124ORCID

Affiliation:

1. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

2. National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling and Health Economics, London, UK.

3. Modelling and Economics Unit, National Infection Service, Public Health England, London NW9 5EQ, UK.

4. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.

5. Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, UK.

6. Department of Infectious Disease, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.

7. Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3LB, UK.

8. NIHR HPRU in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Liverpool, UK.

Abstract

A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to surveillance data estimates virus transmissibility, infection severity, and the impact of interventions.

Funder

Medical Research Council

National Institute for Health Research

Foreign and Commonwealth Office

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

General Medicine

Reference85 articles.

1. GOV.UK Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK (2020).

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3. GOV.UK Prime Minister’s statement on coronavirus (COVID-19): 20 March 2020 - GOV.UK (2020).

4. Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK

5. Care Quality Commission [ARCHIVED CONTENT] UK Government Web Archive - The National Archives https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20200605160439/https://www.cqc.org.uk/files/cqc-care-directory-filters-1-june-2020 (2020).

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