Effect of population viral load on prospective HIV incidence in a hyperendemic rural African community

Author:

Tanser Frank1234ORCID,Vandormael Alain125,Cuadros Diego6,Phillips Andrew N.7,de Oliveira Tulio358ORCID,Tomita Andrew159,Bärnighausen Till141011ORCID,Pillay Deenan112

Affiliation:

1. Africa Health Research Institute, Durban 4001, South Africa.

2. School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa.

3. Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa.

4. Research Department of Infection and Population Health, University College London, London WC1E 6JB, UK.

5. KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa.

6. Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH 45220, USA.

7. Institute for Global Health, University College London, London WC1E 6JB, UK.

8. School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa.

9. Centre for Rural Health, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4001, South Africa.

10. Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02138, USA.

11. Heidelberg Institute for Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg 69117, Germany.

12. Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London WC1E 6JB, UK.

Abstract

We propose HIV population viral load indices, which we demonstrate predict future risk of acquiring HIV in a rural South African population.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

General Medicine

Reference39 articles.

1. Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Ending AIDS. Progress towards the 90-90-90 targets in Global AIDS Update (UNAIDS 2017).

2. Association of highly active antiretroviral therapy coverage, population viral load, and yearly new HIV diagnoses in British Columbia, Canada: a population-based study

3. High Coverage of ART Associated with Decline in Risk of HIV Acquisition in Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

4. UNAIDS Global AIDS response progress reporting 2013: Construction of core indicators for monitoring the 2011 UN political declaration on HIV/AIDS includes additional WHO/UNICEF universal access health sector indicators (UNAIDS 2013).

5. Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model

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