Uncontrolled deforestation and population growth threaten a tropical island’s water and land resources in only 10 years

Abstract

Rapid demographic growth in tropical islands can exacerbate conflicts and pressures on natural resources, as illustrated by the French island of Mayotte where resources are limited. In only 10 years, uncontrolled migration and population growth (+80% of population between 2002 and 2021) have led to a pronounced 3600% increase in deforestation rates (2010–2014) and an intensification of agricultural practices, escalating conflicts over limited land, water, and biodiversity resources. Implementing an original multi-proxy approach to sediment cores, our study reveals a staggering 300% acceleration in erosion during the first wave of migration (2011–2015), followed by a further 190% increase (2019–2021) under sustained migratory and demographic pressures. Sedimentary DNA analysis provided insights into increased connectivity and community changes. By 2050, the population of this region will increase by 74 and 103%, in Comoros and Madagascar islands, respectively. Urgent conservation measures are needed to avoid major socio-environmental crises and to protect resources for future generations.