Cascading rupture of a megathrust

Abstract

Understanding variability in the size and location of large earthquakes along subduction margins is crucial for evaluating seismic and tsunami hazards. We present a coseismic slip model for the 2021 M 8.2 Chignik earthquake and investigate the relationship of this earthquake to previous major events in the Alaska Peninsula region and to interseismic coupling. Stress changes from the 2020 M 7.8 Simeonof event triggered the Chignik event, and together, the earthquakes partially filled an unruptured section along a 3000-km subduction margin that has experienced a series of ruptures along almost its entire length over the past century. Variations in coupling and structural characteristics may make the region more prone to nucleating M 7 to M 8 events rather than larger M > 8.5 earthquakes. Stress changes and rupture areas suggest that the two recent earthquakes may be part of an 80-year-long rupture cascade and may have advanced seismic hazard in the region.