Anthropogenic warming induced intensification of summer monsoon frontal precipitation over East Asia

Author:

Moon Suyeon12ORCID,Utsumi Nobuyuki34ORCID,Jeong Jee-Hoon5ORCID,Yoon Jin-Ho6ORCID,Wang S.-Y. Simon7ORCID,Shiogama Hideo8ORCID,Kim Hyungjun12910ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea.

2. Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

3. School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan.

4. Nagamori Institute of Actuators, Kyoto University of Advanced Science, Kyoto, Japan.

5. Department of Oceanography, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea.

6. School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Engineering, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Gwangju, South Korea.

7. Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA.

8. Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.

9. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea.

10. Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainability, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea.

Abstract

Summer monsoon frontal rainfall in East Asia (EA) is crucial for water resources and flood hazards in densely populated areas. Recent studies have documented the increasing intensity of summer frontal rainfall over recent decades. However, the extent of ongoing climate change on the intensification of the EA frontal precipitation system remains uncertain. Using an objective method for detecting frontal systems, we found a 17 ± 3% increase in observed frontal rainfall intensity during 1958 to 2015. Climate model simulations with and without greenhouse gases suggest that anthropogenic warming plays a key role in the intensification of EA summer frontal precipitation by 5.8% from 1991 to 2015. The analysis highlights that enhanced water vapor convergence and reinforced western North Pacific subtropical High collectively increased moisture transport to the region, resulting in intensified EA frontal precipitation. The results lend support to the anthropogenic warming–induced enhancement of the EA frontal precipitation and its persistence in the future.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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