Black carbon health impacts in the Indo-Gangetic plain: Exposures, risks, and mitigation

Abstract

A large discrepancy between simulated and observed black carbon (BC) surface concentrations over the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) has so far limited our ability to assess the magnitude of BC health impacts in terms of population exposure, morbidity, and mortality. We evaluate these impacts using an integrated modeling framework, including successfully predicted BC concentrations. Population exposure to BC is notable, with more than 60 million people identified as living in hotspots of BC concentration (wintertime mean, >20 μg m −3 ). The attributable fraction of the total cardiovascular disease mortality (CVM) burden to BC exposures is 62% for the megacity. The semiurban area comprised about 49% of the total BC-attributable CVM burden over the IGP. More than 400,000 lives can potentially be saved from CVM annually by implementing prioritized emission reduction from the combustion of domestic biofuel in the semiurban area, diesel oil in transportation, and coal in thermal power plant and brick kiln industries in megacities.