Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

Author:

Trnka Miroslav12ORCID,Feng Song3,Semenov Mikhail A.4,Olesen Jørgen E.156ORCID,Kersebaum Kurt Christian17ORCID,Rötter Reimund P.89,Semerádová Daniela1,Klem Karel1ORCID,Huang Wei10,Ruiz-Ramos Margarita11ORCID,Hlavinka Petr12,Meitner Jan1,Balek Jan1,Havlík Petr12,Büntgen Ulf1131415

Affiliation:

1. Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4b, Brno 603 00, Czech Republic.

2. Mendel University in Brno, Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Zemědělská 1, Brno 613 00, Czech Republic.

3. Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, USA.

4. Plant Sciences Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.

5. Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, 8830 Tjele, Denmark.

6. iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark.

7. Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany.

8. Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Grisebachstraße 6, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.

9. Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Büsgenweg 1, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.

10. Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.

11. CEIGRAM-Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSIAAB, 28040 Madrid, Spain.

12. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

13. Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place CB2 3EN, UK.

14. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.

15. Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic.

Abstract

The risk of severe water scarcity events simultaneously affecting key wheat-producing areas doubles despite CO 2 mitigation efforts.

Funder

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council

National Natural Science Foundation of China

German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Innovation Fund Denmark

Ministry of Education, Youth and Science of the Czech Republic

Spanish National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology and the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference71 articles.

1. N. Alexandratos J. Bruinsma World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision (Food Agri Org United Nations Rome 2012).

2. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture

3. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?;van Ittersum M. K.;Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.,2016

4. J. von Braun The World Food Situation: New Driving Forces and Required Actions (Food Policy Report Washington DC 2008).

5. Geographic distribution of major crops across the world;Leff B.;Global Biogeochem. Cy.,2004

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