Hidden delta degradation due to fluvial sediment decline and intensified marine storms

Abstract

Deltas are threatened by erosion due to climate change and reduced sediment supply, but their response to these changes remains poorly quantified. We investigate the abandoned Yellow River delta that has transitioned from rapid growth to ongoing deterioration due to a river avulsion removing the sediment supply. Integrating bathymetric data, process observations, and sediment transport modeling, we find that while the subaerial delta was stabilized by engineering measures, the subaqueous delta continued to erode due to intensified storms, losing 39% of its mass deposited before the avulsion. Long-term observations show that winter storms initiate scouring of the subaqueous delta, contributing up to 70% of seabed erosion. We then analyze 108 global deltas to assess subaqueous delta erosion risks and identify 17 deltas facing similar situations of sediment decline and storm intensification during the past 40 years. Our findings suggest that subaqueous delta erosion must be integrated into delta sustainability evaluations.