Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues

Author:

Light Nicholas1ORCID,Fernbach Philip M.2,Rabb Nathaniel3ORCID,Geana Mugur V.4ORCID,Sloman Steven A.5ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Business, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA.

2. Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.

3. The Policy Lab, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.

4. William Allen White School of Journalism and Mass Communications, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA.

5. Cognitive, Linguistic, and Psychological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.

Abstract

Public attitudes that are in opposition to scientific consensus can be disastrous and include rejection of vaccines and opposition to climate change mitigation policies. Five studies examine the interrelationships between opposition to expert consensus on controversial scientific issues, how much people actually know about these issues, and how much they think they know. Across seven critical issues that enjoy substantial scientific consensus, as well as attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines and mitigation measures like mask wearing and social distancing, results indicate that those with the highest levels of opposition have the lowest levels of objective knowledge but the highest levels of subjective knowledge. Implications for scientists, policymakers, and science communicators are discussed.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference64 articles.

1. C. Funk L. Rainie Public and scientists’ views on science and society (Pew Research Center 2015) pp. 1–18.

2. J. Kates L. Dawson E. Anderson A. Rouw J. Michaud N. Singer “ COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases: Data from the States ” (Kaiser Family Foundation 2021); www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/.

3. Ending World Hunger. The Promise of Biotechnology and the Threat of Antiscience Zealotry

4. P. J. Hotez “Opinion | How the anti-vaxxers are winning ” New York Times 8 February 2017; www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/opinion/how-the-anti-vaxxers-are-winning.html.

5. IPCC “IPCC climate change 2014 synthesis report” (IPCC 2014).

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