An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Author:

Westerhold Thomas1ORCID,Marwan Norbert23ORCID,Drury Anna Joy14ORCID,Liebrand Diederik1ORCID,Agnini Claudia5ORCID,Anagnostou Eleni6ORCID,Barnet James S. K.78ORCID,Bohaty Steven M.9ORCID,De Vleeschouwer David1ORCID,Florindo Fabio1011ORCID,Frederichs Thomas112ORCID,Hodell David A.13ORCID,Holbourn Ann E.14ORCID,Kroon Dick15,Lauretano Vittoria16ORCID,Littler Kate7ORCID,Lourens Lucas J.17ORCID,Lyle Mitchell18ORCID,Pälike Heiko1ORCID,Röhl Ursula1ORCID,Tian Jun19ORCID,Wilkens Roy H.20ORCID,Wilson Paul A.9,Zachos James C.21ORCID

Affiliation:

1. MARUM–Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany.

2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.

3. University of Potsdam, Institute of Geosciences, 14469 Potsdam, Germany.

4. Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.

5. Dipartimento di Geoscienze, Università degli Studi di Padova, Via Gradenigo 6, I-35131 Padova, Italy.

6. GEOMAR Helmholtz-Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel, Wischhofstrasse 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany.

7. Camborne School of Mines and Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, UK.

8. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland, UK.

9. Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK.

10. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV, Rome, Italy.

11. Institute for Climate Change Solutions, Pesaro e Urbino, Italy.

12. Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.

13. Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

14. Institute of Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel 24118, Germany.

15. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

16. School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TS, UK.

17. Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands.

18. College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.

19. State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Siping Road 1239, Shanghai 200092, PR China.

20. School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.

21. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.

Abstract

Much of our understanding of Earth’s past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states—Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse—are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.

Funder

National Science Foundation

Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

Natural Environment Research Council

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

European Research Council

NWO-ALW

Netherlands Earth System Science Centre

Natural Environmental Research Council

National Science Foundation of China

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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