Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change

Published:2004-04-23 Issue:5670 Volume:304 Page:571-575
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Mastrandrea Michael D.¹²,Schneider Stephen H.¹²

Affiliation:

1. Interdisciplinary Graduate Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

2. Department of Biological Sciences and Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

Abstract

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system—climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ∼45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference33 articles.

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3. Climate Change 2001: Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability 2001

4. S. H. Schneider, Environ. Model. Assess.2, 229 (1997).

5. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis 1990

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