Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

Published:2021-12-17 Issue:6574 Volume:374 Page:
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Elliott Paul¹²³⁴⁵^ORCID,Haw David¹⁶^ORCID,Wang Haowei¹⁶^ORCID,Eales Oliver¹⁶^ORCID,Walters Caroline E.¹⁶^ORCID,Ainslie Kylie E. C.¹⁶⁷^ORCID,Atchison Christina¹^ORCID,Fronterre Claudio⁸^ORCID,Diggle Peter J.⁸^ORCID,Page Andrew J.⁹^ORCID,Trotter Alexander J.⁹^ORCID,Prosolek Sophie J.⁹^ORCID,Ashby Deborah¹^ORCID,Donnelly Christl A.¹⁶¹⁰^ORCID,Barclay Wendy¹¹^ORCID,Taylor Graham¹¹^ORCID,Cooke Graham²³¹¹^ORCID,Ward Helen¹²³^ORCID,Darzi Ara²³¹²¹³^ORCID,Riley Steven¹⁶^ORCID,

Affiliation:

1. School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

2. Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.

3. National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.

4. MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

5. Health Data Research UK London at Imperial College London, London, UK.

6. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.

7. Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands.

8. CHICAS, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, and Health Data Research UK, Lancaster, UK.

9. Quadram Institute, Norwich, UK.

10. Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

11. Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.

12. Institute of Global Health Innovation at Imperial College London, London, UK.

13. Health Security Initiative, Flagship Pioneering UK Ltd., Bristol, UK.

Abstract

Vaccination and disease The United Kingdom has high rates of vaccination for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), exceeding 80% of adults. As immunity wanes and social distancing is relaxed, how are rates of illness and severe disease affected by more infectious variants? Elliott et al . used reverse transcription PCR data from the REACT-1 study, which showed exponential transmission as the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was replaced by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2). After adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for the new variant averaged 55% in June and July of 2020. Despite the slower growth of the pandemic in the summer, it looks as if increased indoor mixing in the autumn will sustain transmission of the Delta variant despite high levels of adult vaccination. —CA

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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