Highly Variable El Niño–Southern Oscillation Throughout the Holocene

Abstract

ENSO Variability The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most energetic, quasiperiodic climate oscillation in the world—every few years warming large expanses of the surface equatorial Pacific Ocean surface and impacting temperatures and rainfall patterns across the globe. A pressing question, in the context of global warming, is whether ENSO might be affected by the rising atmospheric temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Climate models do not agree on the answer to this question, but one place to look for data about how global temperatures might influence ENSO is the record of past ENSO variability. Cobb et al. (p. 67 ) present a record of ENSO variability spanning the past 7000 years, in an attempt better to define its response to insolation forcing over this same period. The findings reveal high variability in ENSO behavior that has no clear dependence on insolation, which implies that a link to warming, if it exists, may be difficult to detect.