Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100

Author:

Sala Osvaldo E.1,Stuart Chapin F.,III 2,Armesto Juan J.3,Berlow Eric4,Bloomfield Janine5,Dirzo Rodolfo6,Huber-Sanwald Elisabeth7,Huenneke Laura F.8,Jackson Robert B.9,Kinzig Ann10,Leemans Rik11,Lodge David M.12,Mooney Harold A.13,Oesterheld Martı́n1,Poff N. LeRoy14,Sykes Martin T.15,Walker Brian H.16,Walker Marilyn17,Wall Diana H.18

Affiliation:

1. Department of Ecology and Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas vinculadas a la Agricultura, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Avenida San Martı́n 4453, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina.

2. Institute of Arctic Biology,

3. Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile.

4. Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.

5. Environmental Defense Fund, 257 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA.

6. Instituto de Ecologı́a, UNAM, México 04510, México.

7. Lehrstuhl fur Grunlandlehre, Technische Universitat Munchen, D85350, Germany.

8. Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA.

9. Department of Botany, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.

10. Department of Biology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA.

11. National Institute for Public Health & the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands.

12. Department of Biology, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556–0369 USA.

13. Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

14. Department of Biology and

15. Ekologihuset, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden.

16. Division of Wildlife and Ecology, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Canberra, Australia.

17. Institute of Northern Forest Cooperative Research, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.

18. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.

Abstract

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference40 articles.

1. The Future of Biodiversity

2. We define change in biodiversity at the biome level as the changes in number and relative abundance of species that occur naturally in that biome.

3. Vitousek P. M., Ecology 75, 1861 (1994).

4. Biotic Control over the Functioning of Ecosystems

5. The Influence of Functional Diversity and Composition on Ecosystem Processes

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