Dryland self-expansion enabled by land–atmosphere feedbacks

Abstract

Dryland expansion causes widespread water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Although the drying influence of global warming is well established, the role of existing drylands in their own expansion is relatively unknown. In this work, by tracking the air flowing over drylands, we show that the warming and drying of that air contributes to dryland expansion in the downwind direction. As they dry, drylands contribute less moisture and more heat to downwind humid regions, reducing precipitation and increasing atmospheric water demand, which ultimately causes their aridification. In ~40% of the land area that recently transitioned from a humid region into a dryland, self-expansion accounted for >50% of the observed aridification. Our results corroborate the urgent need for climate change mitigation measures in drylands to decelerate their own expansion.