Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

Author:

Supran G.1ORCID,Rahmstorf S.23ORCID,Oreskes N.14

Affiliation:

1. Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

3. Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.

4. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge MA, USA.

Abstract

Climate projections by the fossil fuel industry have never been assessed. On the basis of company records, we quantitatively evaluated all available global warming projections documented by—and in many cases modeled by—Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003. We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming that is consistent with subsequent observations. Their projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models. Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp also correctly rejected the prospect of a coming ice age, accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would first be detected, and reasonably estimated the “carbon budget” for holding warming below 2°C. On each of these points, however, the company’s public statements about climate science contradicted its own scientific data.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference120 articles.

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