The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications

Published:2001-07-20 Issue:5529 Volume:293 Page:474-479
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Goldenberg Stanley B.¹,Landsea Christopher W.¹,Mestas-Nuñez Alberto M.²,Gray William M.³

Affiliation:

1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL 33149, USA.

2. Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies/University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA.

3. Colorado State University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.

Abstract

The years 1995 to 2000 experienced the highest level of North Atlantic hurricane activity in the reliable record. Compared with the generally low activity of the previous 24 years (1971 to 1994), the past 6 years have seen a doubling of overall activity for the whole basin, a 2.5-fold increase in major hurricanes (≥50 meters per second), and a fivefold increase in hurricanes affecting the Caribbean. The greater activity results from simultaneous increases in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and decreases in vertical wind shear. Because these changes exhibit a multidecadal time scale, the present high level of hurricane activity is likely to persist for an additional ∼10 to 40 years. The shift in climate calls for a reevaluation of preparedness and mitigation strategies.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference63 articles.

1. The stages of a tropical cyclone [tropical system (warm core) with “closed” surface circulation and organized deep convection] include tropical depression [maximum sustained (1-min mean) surface wind < 18 m s −1 ] tropical storm (18 to 32 m s −1 ) and hurricane (≥ 33 m s −1 ). Hurricanes that have attained a maximum sustained surface wind speed ≥ 50 m s −1 are referred to as major (or “intense”) hurricanes (17) corresponding to categories 3 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale (52). The data source used to calculate the tropical cyclone parameters used in this study is the best track file for the Atlantic basin (53) compiled by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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