Targets for Stabilization of Atmospheric CO 2

Author:

Azar Christian1,Rodhe Henning1

Affiliation:

1. C. Azar is at the Institute of Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology–Göteborg University, 412 96 Göteborg, Sweden. H. Rodhe is in the Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published emission trajectories for CO 2 leading to atmospheric equilibrium in the range of 350 to 1000 parts per million by volume (ppmv). This range does not, however, imply that any one concentration is the appropriate value toward which policies influencing worldwide anthropogenic emissions should aim. Scientists must join the debate, despite the difficulty of pinpointing the correct number; otherwise, action may not be taken. Analysis suggests that a value nearer to 350 ppmv should be adopted, until it can be proven that a higher value is safe.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference15 articles.

1. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (United Nations Climate Change Secretariat Palais des Nations Geneva 1992).

2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change J. T. Houghton et al. Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 1996).

3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS 92 Emission Scenarios J. T. Houghton et al. Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 1995).

4. Note however that because aerosols are not well-mixed in the atmosphere it is wrong to think of these as merely offsetting the positive radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (3).

5. The IPCC IS 92 scenarios should not be mixed with IPCC's stabilization scenarios (S350 through S1000). The former is a set of emission scenarios for greenhouse gases and aerosols (3) .

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