Drivers of epidemic dynamics in real time from daily digital COVID-19 measurements

Author:

Kendall Michelle1ORCID,Ferretti Luca23ORCID,Wymant Chris23ORCID,Tsallis Daphne4ORCID,Petrie James23ORCID,Di Francia Andrea5,Di Lauro Francesco23ORCID,Abeler-Dörner Lucie23ORCID,Manley Harrison5ORCID,Panovska-Griffiths Jasmina235ORCID,Ledda Alice5ORCID,Didelot Xavier16ORCID,Fraser Christophe23ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Statistics, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.

2. Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department for Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7DQ, UK.

3. Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Old Road Campus, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.

4. Zühlke Engineering Ltd., 80 Great Eastern Street, London EC2A 3JL, UK.

5. UK Health Security Agency, Nobel House, 17 Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, UK.

6. School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of respiratory pathogen spread is challenging, particularly in a timely manner during an ongoing epidemic. In this work, we present insights that we obtained using daily data from the National Health Service COVID-19 app for England and Wales and that we shared with health authorities in almost real time. Our indicator of the reproduction number R ( t ) was available days earlier than other estimates, with an innovative capability to decompose R ( t ) into contact rates and probabilities of infection. When Omicron arrived, the main epidemic driver switched from contacts to transmissibility. We separated contacts and transmissions by day of exposure and setting and found pronounced variability over days of the week and during Christmas holidays and events. For example, during the Euro football tournament in 2021, days with England matches showed sharp spikes in exposures and transmissibility. Digital contact-tracing technologies can help control epidemics not only by directly preventing transmissions but also by enabling rapid analysis at scale and with unprecedented resolution.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Reference63 articles.

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2. Infectious Diseases of Humans

3. Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures

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5. Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt

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