Ecological Forecasts: An Emerging Imperative

Author:

Clark James S.1,Carpenter Steven R.2,Barber Mary3,Collins Scott4,Dobson Andy5,Foley Jonathan A.6,Lodge David M.7,Pascual Mercedes8,Pielke Roger9,Pizer William10,Pringle Cathy11,Reid Walter V.12,Rose Kenneth A.13,Sala Osvaldo14,Schlesinger William H.15,Wall Diana H.16,Wear David17

Affiliation:

1. Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 USA.

2. University of Wisconsin Center for Limnology, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

3. Ecological Society of America, 1707 H Street NW, Suite 400, Washington, DC 20006, USA.

4. Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA.

5. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.

6. Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

7. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.

8. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.

9. Environmental and Societal Impacts Group/National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3250 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301, USA.

10. Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA.

11. Department of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.

12. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 731 North 79th Street, Seattle, WA 98103, USA.

13. Coastal Fisheries Institute and Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.

14. Department of Ecology, Faculty of Agronomy–IFEVA, University of Buenos Aires–CONICET, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina.

15. Nicholas School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.

16. Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.

17. United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Post Office Box 12254, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA.

Abstract

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference50 articles.

1. Supplemental text is available at Science Online at www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/293/5530/657/DC1.

2. Adapted from the notion of (generalized) Fisher Information (as opposed to the Information Theory definition as the log-likelihood ratio).

3. M. MacCracken www.esig.ucar.edu/socasp/zine/26/guest.html.

4. Lande R., Am. Nat. 130, 624 (1997).

5. Pacala S. W., et al., Ecol. Monogr. 66, 1 (1996).

Cited by 700 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3