Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence

Abstract

Warm water and big winds The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was highly active, with six major storms—nearly two standard deviations above the normal number. Three of those storms made landfall over the Gulf Coast and the Caribbean, causing terrible damage and loss. Why was the season so fierce? Murakami et al. used a suite of high-resolution model experiments to show that the main cause was pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. This effect was distinct from La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean that were involved in other years. It remains unclear how important anthropogenic forcing may be in causing such increased hurricane activity. Science , this issue p. 794