Measles and the canonical path to elimination-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Measles and the canonical path to elimination

Published:2019-05-10 Issue:6440 Volume:364 Page:584-587
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Graham Matthew¹²^ORCID,Winter Amy K.¹²^ORCID,Ferrari Matthew³^ORCID,Grenfell Bryan⁴⁵,Moss William J.¹,Azman Andrew S.¹^ORCID,Metcalf C. Jessica E.⁴^ORCID,Lessler Justin¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.

2. These authors contributed equally to this work.

3. Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

4. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

5. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

Abstract

The path to elimination Measles is highly infectious and can be dangerous. The classic 1968 vaccine is highly effective, and it should be possible to eliminate measles. Graham et al. found that measles transmission changes as vaccination coverage and birth rates (that is, the rate of arrival of susceptible individuals into the population) change in a country in response to socioeconomic variables. As a result, measles everywhere follows the canonical mode of decline in response to vaccination campaigns. Incidence is initially high, and variability is low. As incidence declines, variability increases, and as incidence drops toward elimination, so does variability. It is possible to identify countries that are deviating from this expectation and to adapt their vaccination programs to regain the path to elimination. Science , this issue p. 584

Funder

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference32 articles.

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5. Dynamics of Measles Epidemics: Estimating Scaling of Transmission Rates Using a Time Series SIR Model

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