Affiliation:
1. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
Abstract
Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modeling current and future climate trends. This article reviews present knowledge of changes in temperatures and two major circulation features—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—over much of the last 1000 years, mainly on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate records. Average temperatures during the last three decades were likely the warmest of the last millennium, about 0.2°C warmer than during warm periods in the 11th and 12th centuries. The 20th century experienced the strongest warming trend of the millennium (about 0.6°C per century). Some recent changes in ENSO may have been unique since 1800, whereas the recent trend to more positive NAO values may have occurred several times since 1500. Uncertainties will only be reduced through more extensive spatial sampling of diverse proxy climatic records.
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Reference74 articles.
1. Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Change: A Status Report
2. J. T. Houghton et al. Eds. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press Cambridge 1996).
3. Mann M. E., Weather 56, 91 (2001).
4. The data are adequate to obtain estimates of decadal-mean NH temperature with a standard error of 0.1°C or less (19).
5. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years
Cited by
499 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献