Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends

Published:2024-05-10 Issue:6696 Volume:384 Page:639-646
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Chen Yuyang¹²^ORCID,Xu Yiting³^ORCID,Wang Lin⁴^ORCID,Liang Yilin¹^ORCID,Li Naizhe³^ORCID,Lourenço José⁵^ORCID,Yang Yun¹^ORCID,Lin Qiushi¹,Wang Ligui⁶,Zhao He⁷^ORCID,Cazelles Bernard⁸⁹^ORCID,Song Hongbin⁶,Liu Ziyan¹^ORCID,Wang Zengmiao¹,Brady Oliver J.¹⁰¹¹^ORCID,Cauchemez Simon¹²^ORCID,Tian Huaiyu¹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.

2. Yangtze Eco-Environment Engineering Research Center, China Three Gorges Corporation, Wuhan, China.

3. School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China.

4. Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

5. Católica Biomedical Research Center, Católica Medical School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisbon, Portugal.

6. Center of Disease Control and Prevention, PLA, Beijing, China.

7. CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.

8. Institut de Biologie de l’École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France.

9. Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.

10. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

11. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

12. Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.

Abstract

Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Link

https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.adj4427

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