Climatic Control of the High-Latitude Vegetation Greening Trend and Pinatubo Effect

Abstract

A biogeochemical model of vegetation using observed climate data predicts the high northern latitude greening trend over the past two decades observed by satellites and a marked setback in this trend after the Mount Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991. The observed trend toward earlier spring budburst and increased maximum leaf area is produced by the model as a consequence of biogeochemical vegetation responses mainly to changes in temperature. The post-Pinatubo decline in vegetation in 1992–1993 is apparent as the effect of temporary cooling caused by the eruption. High-latitude CO 2 uptake during these years is predicted as a consequence of the differential response of heterotrophic respiration and net primary production.