Quantifying the Impact of Immune Escape on Transmission Dynamics of Influenza

Author:

Park Andrew W.12,Daly Janet M.34,Lewis Nicola S.356,Smith Derek J.578,Wood James L. N.6,Grenfell Bryan T.7910

Affiliation:

1. Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.

2. Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.

3. Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Newmarket, Suffolk CB8 7UU, UK.

4. School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, The University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington, Leicestershire LE12 5RD, UK.

5. Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.

6. Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK.

7. Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.

8. Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

9. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.

10. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.

Abstract

Flu's Tricky Tricks After vaccination against influenza A virus, single-point mutations are selected in hemagglutinin (the virus molecule that binds to sialic acid molecules on the surface of host cells) that escape neutralization by polyclonal antibody responses. Hensley et al. (p. 734 ) have discovered that in mice these mutations increased the virus's avidity for sialic acid. Amino acid substitutions that occur during reiterations of immune escape and avidity modulation can thus drive antigenic variation. This constant evolution of influenza viruses requires us to change vaccine components annually, and, for equine influenza, Park et al. (p. 726 ) show that as the match between virus and vaccine strains drifts apart with time, the probability of becoming infected and the length of the infectious period increase to the point where outbreaks occur. Nevertheless, even imperfect vaccines may be of benefit to a population because increasing the proportion of vaccinated individuals can supply enough herd immunity to offset a poor antigenic match, especially if used in conjunction with antiviral drugs. For humans, Yang et al. (p. 729 , published online 10 September) estimate that the rate of transmission within U.S. households puts influenza A 2009 H1N1 (the current pandemic “swine flu”) in the higher range of transmissibility, compared to past seasonal and pandemic strains. Thus, to achieve mitigation this fall, children should be the first recipients of vaccine, followed by adults—aiming overall for 70% coverage of the population.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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