State dependence of CO <sub>2</sub> forcing and its implications for climate sensitivity-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

State dependence of CO ₂ forcing and its implications for climate sensitivity

Published:2023-12 Issue:6674 Volume:382 Page:1051-1056
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

He Haozhe¹^ORCID,Kramer Ryan J.²³^ORCID,Soden Brian J.¹^ORCID,Jeevanjee Nadir⁴^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.

2. Goddard Earth Science Technology and Research II, University of Maryland at Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA.

3. Climate and Radiation Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA.

4. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA.

Abstract

When evaluating the effect of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) changes on Earth’s climate, it is widely assumed that instantaneous radiative forcing from a doubling of a given CO 2 concentration (IRF 2×CO2 ) is constant and that variances in climate sensitivity arise from differences in radiative feedbacks or dependence of these feedbacks on the climatological base state. Here, we show that the IRF 2×CO2 is not constant, but rather depends on the climatological base state, increasing by about 25% for every doubling of CO 2 , and has increased by about 10% since the preindustrial era primarily due to the cooling within the upper stratosphere, implying a proportionate increase in climate sensitivity. This base-state dependence also explains about half of the intermodel spread in IRF 2×CO2 , a problem that has persisted among climate models for nearly three decades.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Link

https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.abq6872

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