Extinction Debt and Windows of Conservation Opportunity in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

Growing Extinction Debt Predicting, and potentially preventing, extinction is a central goal of conservation biology. Wearn et al. (p. 228 ; see the Perspective by Rangel ) describe a mathematical approach for predicting the time lags in extinction following habitat loss. The model was applied to the highly biodiverse Brazilian Amazon region, and used to reconstruct the spatial and temporal patterns of extinction and the accumulation of extinction debt from 1970 through to the present, and to extrapolate to 2050 under four deforestation scenarios. The Amazon basin sits at a critical point: Few species have been driven extinct to date, but an extinction debt is rapidly accumulating, which could lead to an increasing rate of extinction in the next four decades.