Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America

Published:2007-05-25 Issue:5828 Volume:316 Page:1181-1184
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Seager Richard¹²³⁴⁵,Ting Mingfang¹²³⁴⁵,Held Isaac¹²³⁴⁵,Kushnir Yochanan¹²³⁴⁵,Lu Jian¹²³⁴⁵,Vecchi Gabriel¹²³⁴⁵,Huang Huei-Ping¹²³⁴⁵,Harnik Nili¹²³⁴⁵,Leetmaa Ants¹²³⁴⁵,Lau Ngar-Cheung¹²³⁴⁵,Li Cuihua¹²³⁴⁵,Velez Jennifer¹²³⁴⁵,Naik Naomi¹²³⁴⁵

Affiliation:

1. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.

2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.

3. Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.

4. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

5. Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.

Abstract

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference24 articles.

1. U. Cubaschet al., in Climate Change 2000âThe Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001), pp. 525â582.

2. Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle

3. Details of the models analyzed can be found at www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/ipcc_model_documentation.php and the data can be found at https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/index.jsp.

4. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 2000

5. GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics

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