Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape

Published:2001-10-26 Issue:5543 Volume:294 Page:813-817
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Keeling Matt J.¹,Woolhouse Mark E. J.²,Shaw Darren J.²,Matthews Louise²,Chase-Topping Margo²,Haydon Dan T.³,Cornell Stephen J.¹,Kappey Jens¹,Wilesmith John⁴,Grenfell Bryan T.¹

Affiliation:

1. Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.

2. Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, UK.

3. Department of Zoology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada.

4. Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK.

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm–based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference36 articles.

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2. Transmission between farms is determined by the number and type of livestock and the distance between susceptible and infectious farms. Let N i be a vector of the number of animals of each type in farm i and S and T be the associated vectors of susceptibility and transmission. The probability that a susceptible farm i becomes infected in a given day Prob=1−exp−S·Ni ∑j∈infectious T·NjK(dij)where K is the infection kernel and d ij is the distance between farms i and j. The kernel K is estimated from the tracing of infection (performed by DEFRA) after the movement restrictions were imposed. The kernel determines how the relative risk of infection changes with the distance between a susceptible and infectious farm; it is vital in determining the role of spatial heterogeneity and the rate of spread of the epidemic. Simulations show that the qualitative results presented are not sensitive to the precise shape of the transmission kernel. The number of neighborhood culls (26) is related to the number of infected premises is temporally varying and follows the observed cull rates. [Greater details of the model are given in the supplementary material (10)]. Given the distribution of farms in the UK and the state of those farms on a given day the state of the epidemic is then updated sequentially. Each day the probability of infection for every susceptible farm is calculated; a random number generator is then used to decide if the infection event occurs on the basis of this probability. Other operations such as the culling of infected and at-risk farms are also stochastic and carried out daily.

3. The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions

4. The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions

5. T. W. Bates M. C. Thurmond T. E. Carpenter Am. J. Vet. Res. 62 1121 (2001).

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