1. Prior to his death in December 1996, Dr. Sagan directed the Laboratory for Planetary Studies at Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853–6801, USA. Dr. Chyba is in the Department of Planetary Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721–0092, USA. Final changes in response to editors’ and referees’ comments were made in this manuscript by Dr. Chyba subsequent to Dr. Sagan’s death.