Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

Author:

Duan Hongbo1ORCID,Zhou Sheng2ORCID,Jiang Kejun3,Bertram Christoph4ORCID,Harmsen Mathijs56ORCID,Kriegler Elmar47ORCID,van Vuuren Detlef P.56ORCID,Wang Shouyang18ORCID,Fujimori Shinichiro91011ORCID,Tavoni Massimo1213ORCID,Ming Xi1,Keramidas Kimon14ORCID,Iyer Gokul15,Edmonds James15ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.

2. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

3. Energy Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing 100038, China.

4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.

5. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Postbus 30314, The Hague, Netherlands.

6. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80125 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.

7. Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Potsdam, 14482 Potsdam, Germany.

8. Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China.

9. Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan.

10. Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan.

11. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.

12. Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan 20123, Italy.

13. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Fondazione Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan 20123, Italy.

14. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville E-41092, Spain.

15. Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA.

Abstract

Change in the air The 2016 Paris Agreement set the ambitious goals of keeping global temperature rise this century below 2°C, or even better, 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Substantial interventions are required to meet these goals, particularly for industrialized countries. Duan et al. projected that China will need to reduce its carbon emissions by more than 90% and its energy consumption by almost 40% to do its share in reaching the 1.5°C target. Negative emission technology is an essential element of any plan. China's accumulated economic costs by 2050 may be about 3 to 6% of its gross domestic product. Science , this issue p. 378

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference54 articles.

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2. Global warming has increased global economic inequality

3. Using and improving the social cost of carbon

4. Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment

5. Climate Vulnerable Forum “Statement of the CVF chair Philippines. UNFCCC COP21 ministerial dialogue on the long-term goal” (2015); www.thecvf.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Statement-of-PH-CVF-Chair-Ministerial-Dialogue-LTG-08-Dec-15-COP21.pdf.

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