Prognostic role of demographic indicators and Charlson comorbidity index in oxygen-dependent patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Abstract

Aim. The aim of our work is to establish the prognostic significance of demographic indicators and the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) in oxygen-dependent patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Material and methods. The research included 211 oxygen-dependent patients with COVID-19: I group – 94 patients who recovered; II group – 117 patients, the disease ended fatally. We used the WHO age classification when analyzing the age structure of patients. The Charlson comorbidity index was calculated for each patient. The patients were divided into groups Statistical data processing was carried out in the program Statistica for Windows 13 (StatSoft Inc., No. JPZ804I382130ARCN10-J). Results. It was established that the median age of the ІІ group patients was higher (P < 0.001) than patients the I in group. Elderly patients were more often registered in the ІІ group than among patients in group I (25.6 % vs. 8.5 %, P = 0.001). Middle-aged patients were more often registered in the І group than among patients in the II group (34.0 % vs. 19.4 %, P = 0.02). According to the result of the ROC analysis, the prognostic value of the age of the patients was established, namely, under conditions of age >66 years (AUC = 0.636, Р = 0.002), the probability of a fatal outcome of COVID-19 was significant. Analysis of the influence of comorbid conditions on the risk of COVID-19 fatal outcome in oxygen-dependent patients according to the CCI showed that the absence of comorbid pathology was more common among patients of group I than among patients of group II (12.8 % vs. 2.6 %, P = 0.004). The level of CCI in patients of the II group significantly exceeded the corresponding indicator of the patients of the I group (P < 0.01), who recovered. According to the obtained result of the ROC analysis, the prognostic value of this indicator was established, namely under the conditions of the CCI index >5 in oxygen-dependent patients with COVID-19 (AUC = 0.652, P < 0.001) the probability of fatal outcome of the disease was significant. Conclusions. In oxygen-dependent patients with COVID-19, patient age and comorbidity are associated with disease outcome. Under conditions of age >66 years (AUC = 0.636, P = 0.002) and the Charlson comorbidity index >5, the probability of a fatal outcome of the disease is significant (AUC = 0.652, P < 0.001).