Predicting the throughput of grain products at the multipurpose terminal at the Port of Cape Town

Abstract

Background: Ports provide vital links in the maritime supply chains on which the trading of countries depend, and their efficiency and performance can contribute largely to the international competitiveness of those countries. However, to achieve and maintain such a contribution, port operators need to understand their role in a national economy and the factors that underlie the efficiency of the intermodal link that ports constitute in international supply chains. One such factor is the capacity of specialised cargo terminals.Objectives: This article described a possible technique for forecasting the throughput of grain imports through the bulk grain terminal at the Port of Cape Town. It determined whether the capacity in the bulk grain terminal is sufficient to handle current and forecasted volumes of imported grains or whether the volumes justify expansion or upgrading of the bulk grain terminal in the Port of Cape Town.Method: The Box–Jenkins methodology for autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was applied. An ARIMA model – 2 parameter, 1 difference – was selected to do the forecast.Results: The average tonnage of all grains imported through the Port of Cape Town that can be expected in a month is approximately 90 000 tons. The maximum tonnage of all grains imported through the Port of Cape Town that can be expected in a month is approximately 180 000 tons.Conclusion: The analyses show that the demand for imports of grain products at the multipurpose terminal in the Port of Cape Town is not growing substantially. The analyses also identify that the current upper limits of grain imports are within the existing handling and storage capacities of the bulk grain terminal.