HINDCAST AND OPERATIONAL FORECASTING SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR THE SEA OF AZOV AND KERCH STRAIT

Abstract

The paper presents Marine Hindcast and Forecasts System (MHFS) of hydrometeorological and ice characteristics for the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait. It is being developed at the Federal State Budgetary Institution “N.N. Zubov State Oceanographic Institute” (FSBI “SOI”). The main components of this system include regional models of the atmosphere, marine circulation, dynamics-thermodynamics of ice cover and wind waves. For the Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, marine circulation models of the MHFS were implemented with a high spatial resolution (500 m and 120–200 m for the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait marine circulation models respectively and 100 m for the Kerch Strait wind waves mode). The MHFS allows both hindcast calculations and operational analyzes and forecasts of hydrometeorological conditions in the study areas. Additionally, this system allows to obtain an almost complete list of hydrometeorological characteristics which are necessary for solving practical problems in planning economic or recreational activities, organizing navigation, warning of hazardous events, planning operations in case of emergencies, etc. For the Sea of Azov, the MHFS was implemented in cooperation with the Federal State Budgetary Institution “North-Caucasian Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental monitoring” (FSBI “North-Caucasian AHEM”). In 2019 the system was recommended for the practical implementation by the Roshydromet Central Methodical Commission on Hydrometeorological and Heliogeophysical Forecasts. The Kerch Strait MHFS is being implemented in cooperation with the Federal State Budget Educational Institution of Higher Education “Admiral F.F. Ushakov” and now at the stage of tests and accumulation of the forecast database for the purpose of their subsequent verification using hydrological buoy data, calibration of models’ parameters and increasing the accuracy of the obtained results. The Kerch Strait MHFS results are planned to be used for navigation in the Kerch Strait.