Railway Suicide in The Netherlands Lower Than Expected

Abstract

Abstract. Background: Increasing rail transportation requires appropriate railway suicide preventive measures. Aims: The investigation of trends in railway suicide during 2008–2018, a period in which preventive measures were taken by Dutch railway infrastructure manager ProRail. Methods: Generalized linear regression models for railway suicide were developed for the period 1970–2007 with general suicide rate, railway traffic intensity, and a combination of these variables as regressors. Subsequently, the best-fitting model was used to investigate trends in railway suicide after 2007 by comparing in retrospect observed values with the expected outcomes of the regression model. Results: An adequate regression model for railway suicide was obtained using both general suicide rate and railway traffic intensity as regressors. Based on this model, while national suicide mortality and railway traffic increased, a distinct relative decline in railway suicides was found from 2012 onward. Conclusions: This decline of railway suicides in the Netherlands may indicate that preventive measures taken by ProRail were effective and prevented around 85 railway suicides annually, a reduction of 30%.