Modeling of temporal development of population taking into account the situation of municipalities in the resettlement system (according to the example of the Tyumen Region)

Abstract

The work is devoted to application of spatial statistics and regression analysis tools in the ArcGIS Pro program. In this report we try to confirm two theories in the relationship between positional characteristics of municipalities and the temporal development of population: The farther the locality is from the main settlement of the territory, the faster it loses its own population. The farther the locality is from the main highways of the territory, the faster it loses its own population. The main aim of this article is to find the strictest definition of the type of correlation between such specific distances as the distance to the regional center, the distance to the nearest highway and the relative changes in the municipalities’ population, according to the example of the Tyumen region. A network data set was created to calculate the distances, it contains several elements: main roads, calculated centers of municipalities (CM), lines — distances from centers to the nearest road (“stops”). For the study we used information on changes of population for 4 periods: 1981–1990, 1990–2002, 2002–2010 and 2010–2018. The dependence was done by enumerating the degrees of distances. We considered that the dependence was selected in case the relevant correlation coefficient was the largest. For each chosen relationship, ArcGIS Pro performed a complete statistical analysis, based on the results, the significance of the model was identified, residual maps constructed, and regression equations calculated. All the models except the first period turned out to be significant, but they were displaced, which indicates the existence of some unexplored factors. In the context of the constructed models, it was assumed that the distance to the regional center is closely connected with an expansion of the population in the surrounding municipalities, but the expansion gets more the closer the municipal district is to Tyumen. The distance to the nearest highway is associated with a decrease of population, and the farther the municipality is from the highway, the more it loses population.