Quantitative framework for coffee leaf rust (hemileia vastatrix), production and futures

Abstract

The livelihood of at least 120 million people worldwide depends on the coffee supply chain. Coffee rust is among the main diseases that attack the coffee plant and is caused by the Hemileia vastatrix fungus at temperatures between 10 - 30° C. Coffee rust infestation leads to production losses of over $1 billion annually worldwide. Coffee is the second largest traded commodity worldwide, with about $100 billion in volume traded annually. Understanding if there is a relationship between Temperature, Rainfall, Rust, Production and Futures coffee rust variables is important. This research offers the first known quantitative framework for describing and visualizing the correlation between coffee rust, amount of coffee produced and futures prices..