Profiting from arbitrage and odds biases of the European football gambling market

Abstract

A gambling market is usually described as being inefficient if there are one or more betting strategies that generate profit, at a consistent rate, as a consequence of exploiting market flaws. This paper examines the online European football gambling market based on 14 European football leagues over a period of seven years, from season 2005/06 to 2011/12 inclusive, and takes into consideration the odds provided by numerous bookmaking firms. Contrary to common misconceptions, we demonstrate that the accuracy of bookmakers' odds has not improved over this period. More importantly, our results question market efficiency by demonstrating high profitability on the basis of consistent odds biases and numerous arbitrage opportunities.